Data Analysis

Long-form data analysis of Bulgarian parliamentary elections — turnout, machine flash discrepancies, risk neighborhoods, polling accuracy.

• Twenty years of Bulgarian cabinets — what the numbers actually show (2026-05-24)
  Analysis of all 18 cabinets since 2005 through their macro footprints — GDP, inflation, unemployment, debt and EU funds. What worked and what didn't for each mandate, who left the bill for the next, and why the last 4 years are a paradox: the most unstable politics on top of the strongest economy since EU accession.
• A budget scorecard for Bulgaria — five risks, five opportunities (2026-05-19)
  A structured read of Bulgaria's state budget, pinned to specific tiles on the /budget dashboard. Analysis of the new proposal to raise the maximum insurable income to €2,300, plan-versus-actual ministry deviations, the social-functions concentration of spending, and the post-euro fiscal headroom.
• A governance scorecard for Bulgaria — seven risks, six opportunities (2026-05-18)
  A structured read of Bulgarian governance, pinned to specific tiles on the /governance dashboard. What the data says about cabinet stability, institutional trust, WGI scores, debt and budget — and where on the dashboard to check live values.
• The state's money: the new public-procurement module and MPs' business connections (2026-05-13)
  What the new public-procurement tracking tool is, where the data comes from (over 244,000 contracts), and how the system filters out name matches to surface the real connections.
• Election risk screening — new tools for the 19.04.2026 vote (2026-05-13)
  Composite index (47/100, High risk) from five process-integrity signals, plus four context signals (Benford, neighborhood swing, electoral volatility, polling error). Per-section risk screening (10 Critical out of 12,705) and per-party Benford 2BL. Aligned with the international electoral-integrity frameworks.
• Following the money trail — a tour of the new MP business connections feature (2026-05-04)
  What the new MP business-connections graph is, where the data comes from, how to read it, and a worked example of a cross-party ownership path between two sitting MPs.
• Election Integrity Analysis — 19.04.2026 vs prior cycles (2026-05-03)
  Comparative analysis across 12 elections (2009-2026): flash-memory anomalies, turnout, protest vote, risk neighborhoods and polling.