Election Risk Index — methodology

The composite Election Risk Index distils six independent screening signals into a single 0–100 reading. This page documents exactly how each component is computed, how they are weighted, and what the number does not say.

What this page covers

  • The six underlying signals and how each is computed.
  • How signals are normalized to a common 0–100 scale before they are combined.
  • Weights, thresholds, and bands (Low / Moderate / High / Critical).
  • When the index misleads — small samples, demographic effects, lawful recount corrections.

See the Election Risk Analysis page for the index applied to the latest election.

Explore the data

  • Home
  • Governance
  • National Assembly
  • Roll-call votes
  • Governments
  • MP business connections
  • Public procurement
  • State budget
  • EU funds
  • Indicators
  • Consumption
  • Prices
  • Party financing
  • Opinion polls
  • Seat simulator
  • Parties
  • Results by region
  • Extraordinary local elections
  • Local-elections reconciliation
  • Sofia
  • About the project

Recent analysis

  • Budget 2026: adopted in month seven — what the numbers show
  • Machine-only voting: who wins and who loses
  • Budget 2026 in focus: the record deficit, the critics, and a check against the numbers