Election Risk Index — methodology

The composite Election Risk Index distils six independent screening signals into a single 0–100 reading. This page documents exactly how each component is computed, how they are weighted, and what the number does not say.

What this page covers

• The six underlying signals and how each is computed.
• How signals are normalized to a common 0–100 scale before they are combined.
• Weights, thresholds, and bands (Low / Moderate / High / Critical).
• When the index misleads — small samples, demographic effects, lawful recount corrections.

See the Election Risk Analysis page for the index applied to the latest election.