Election risk analysis

This page consolidates every statistical screening signal we publish for the selected parliamentary vote. The Election Risk Index gives one rolled-up 0–100 reading, and the tiles below let you drill into each of the underlying signals that feed it.

What's included

• Section-level risk screening — composite score from six independent statistical tests per polling section.
• Benford's law — first- and second-digit distributions of per-section vote counts, by party.
• Machine voting — sections where the flash-memory protocol disagrees with the official protocol.
• Vote concentration — sections with a suspiciously high single-party share.
• At-risk neighborhoods — sections inside Roma neighborhoods with historical trend.
• Polling expectation gap — pre-election poll averages against the final result.

This is a screening tool, not a verdict. Each signal has innocent explanations and must be read in context. See the full methodology for details.